Farmed Cod in the European Market: Market Potential and Substitution Effects

The European Union (EU) is the major market for wild cod and farmed salmon and is likely to be the major market for farmed cod as well. The export of farmed cod is still small, but grew with 292% from 2004 to 2005. Projections suggest the supply of farmed cod will continue to grow, and that Norwegian aquaculture will become an important supplier of cod to the European market. To be successful, the farmed cod industry needs knowledge of the potential markets for farmed cod. How large will the market sh are for farmed cod be? Which consumer segments should be targeted first? Furthermore, producers of Norwegian wild cod and farmed salmon need more knowledge about the likely impact of the growing production of farmed cod on their sales. Will farmed cod expand the market for Norwegian fish or will it mainly take market shares from existing Norwegian products like wild cod and farmed salmon? We will create an experimental fish market in the sensory lab of the Institut National de la Recherche Agronom iques (INRA) in Dijon, France. In the experimental fish market, 200 representative French consumers will choose between cod and salmon with a variety of quality attributes as well as other compeating fish products. The choices will be both hypothetical an d non-hypothetical, and will be conducted under various information scenarios. In the non-hypothetical choice experiment, the consumers will choose between the fish products in a series of pricing scenarios. To induce real economic incentives, one of the scenarios will be randomly drawn as binding, and the choices made in that scenario will be implemented. The participants will receive the products they have chosen in the binding scenario and have to pay the prices posted for the respective products in that scenario. Assessments of consumer preferences will be based on sensory evaluations, attitude questions, and choices in the choice experiment.