PETROSAM-Samfunnsvitenskapelig petroleumsforskning

Russian and Caspian energy is a source of opportunity and risk for policy makers and businesspeople across the globe, not least in Norway, both a neighbour to Russia and a key player in the same industry - oil and gas. In the programme we want to expand o ur understanding of the long-term outlook for three issue clusters of strategic relevance for Norway: 1. Russia and the Caspian region as arenas for foreign energy companies 2. Driving forces and conditions for Russian and Caspian energy exports 3. Energy developments in the High North These issues will be revisited repeatedly throughout the programme. But to understand and forecast developments in these issues we need to address more fundamental tendencies. In our previous research we have identified thr ee recurrent energy themes in Russian and Caspian politics 1. Control of the oil and gas industries and revenue streams 2. Concern for the energy balance 3. The link between energy and foreign policy These concerns, the way they will be addressed by Russi a and the Caspian states, and the factors and driving forces that will influence their relative focus and interpretation, are at the centre of this programme proposal. The research will mainly be aimed at understanding long-term developments, but in orde r to do so it will also be important to improve our reading of short-term signs. We will be aiming both to specify causal relationships where possible, and to identify overall emerging patterns and paradoxes where complexity is high. We want to understand both the relevant reforms and the actors and driving forces behind them. Several different methodologies will be applied, in addition to an overall integrative framework. For the direct users of this research the natural interest is to have informed opin ions about what may happen next. Sound research must, however, rest on analysis of what has happened earlier. This research programme has been designed to cater to both needs.