GUNVOR - Godstransport og usikkerhet - Valuation of transport time and reliability in freight transport

Transport time variability and information are both related to the reliability of transport. None of them are standard components of cost benefit analysis, the well-established ex ante evaluation method in the transport sector. Recognising that transport policy measures for improved reliability (including several ITS solutions) should be evaluated in a way that is consistent with existing methodology, we propose a project for deriving values of time and reliability in freight transport by road and rail. I n TØI's pre-project to the SMARTRANS programme we identified knowledge gaps in this area. The importance of reliability varies across types of transports. As a first step in the project, we will identify commodity and transport categories for which reliab ility is a significant problem in road and rail freight transport. The complexity of freight transport compared to transport of persons has implications for survey design. Hence, the development of the survey design is an important part of the project and includes considerations of who should be target respondents, and how to present reliability to respondents in a precise, yet comprehensible way. The proposed survey is stated preference-based. Alternative approaches to transport time variability is found in the literature, such as the scheduling cost model and the variance model, which both have their advantages and shortcomings that will be taken into account in our project. A pilot study will be carried out before the main survey and analysis of collec ted data. Values of time, variability and improved information will be derived, and we will describe how the values can be applied in a cost benefit framework. A stakeholder group will be established to ensure relevance to users, and a scientific group to ensure scientific quality. The derived values will supplement the new Norwegian valuation study in which values for several other non-market goods will be estimated for use in cost benefit analysis.