The present political and public debate on whether to open new areas within
the Norwegian E.E.Z for oil operations is heated. The legitimacy of the
expert groups consulted has been questioned, adding heat to the discussion.
The high knowledge uncertainty allows for quite different interpretations,
and the great values at stake raise the question of how uncertainty is best
accounted for in terms of societal gains. The complexity of any ecosystem
limits the predictability of the impact of future events, whi ch in themselves
may not be predictable. To provide a solid basis for decision making, key
uncertainties must be brought to the center of the discussion. First however,
these uncertainties must be identified and presented in a coherent way.
A considerable part of the uncertainty is beyond what is quantifiable and
explains some of the tension in the debate. This project aims at developing
a tool for identifying and assessing key uncertainties by merging two
methodological approaches: the uncertainty framew ork developed by Walker
et al. (2003) and the Delphi method (Adler and Ziglio, 1996). The Walker et
al. framework allows to address the non-quantitative aspects of uncertainty,
for example the choice of boundary in converting the policy problem to a
techn ical or a research problem, the assumptions underlying the body of
knowledge, validation of results and irreducible uncertainties, to mention
some. The Delphi method provides an expert based process for evaluating
the uncertainties, in terms of which shou ld be considered the most relevant
for the policy problem. It also facilitates a learning process for the experts
involved, i.e. relevant technical expertise, marine scientists and managers.
The results from this assessment will be presented and discussed at a
workshop with stakeholders. The workshop will provide recommendations
for making the precautionary principle operational concerning opening new
areas for petroleum activity.