Critical Aspects of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in the Northern Regions

The CAVIAR II project build on one International Polar Year 2007-8 legacy, which illustrates the complex linkages between changing climatic, socio-economic and environmental conditions and the effects on local communities in the Arctic. Adaptive capacity is at the core and has been studied in northern Norway, Sweden and Finland along four tracks. The question of whether adaptation is gendered and how this may affect adaptive capacity was addressed at an international workshop, which concluded that gender should be fully integrated into studies of change. The intersectionality of gender with other social roles (ethnicity, age, class, race), is critical for identifying how impacts are emphasized and by whom and how this affects adaptive capacity. The first research team developed scenarios of change in ecosystem services by combining regional climate change projections with literature on the impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Sources and barriers of adaptive capacity were identified through discussions with local representatives (sheep farmers, reindeer herders, nature-based tourism and forestry actors) of the scenarios and local observations and experiences. Changes in the ecosystems services were found to have no significant impact on the local communities and livelihoods studied when compared with recruitment and national agricultural policies. The second team addressed adaptive capacity of individuals, municipalities or businesses within the frames of climate adaptation policy and regulation, with a focus on damage compensation from natural hazards. In northern Finland the adaptive capacity of home owners and the City of Rovaniemi is affected by recent change in flood compensation legislation, which has recently shifted from state to private insurance. The Swedish team illustrates that a tension arises between a marked based natural hazard compensation system and municipal planning when the latter is pressured by its constituents to allow for new buildings in hazard prone areas. A dilemma arises when adaptation to increased population entails an increased hazard for the public. The Norwegian team focused on one flood incident of agricultural land in Målselv 2012 and found that the farmers? main concerns were the significant time lag from the damage to receiving compensation. The regulation of rented agricultural plots which at the time required the farmer to co-pay for damages to each plot rented, caused concern that the land would not be restored for agricultural production after the flood. The third team focused on the notion that farmers find climate and agricultural policy to be of greater challenge than climate change. A case study in Vestvågøy municipality found a number of interconnected factors requiring local adaptation to mitigation measures. Long distances between farms and a higher percentage of rental land plots increase fuel consumption, which combined with increased taxes on agricultural diesel affect the farmers income negatively. Restrictions on cultivation of bogs, a potential mitigative measure, may significantly reduce local agricultural production and affect food security. The sector is dependent on international feed imports, creating vulnerability towards uncertain supply and energy costs. The challenges can be reduced with the growth of local markets, implementation of new technologies (reduce greenhouse gases), prioritizing sustainable agricultural production (energy use, recruitment, optimization of production), and reducing dependence on imported feed. The study concludes that there is a need for cross-sectoral policies in agriculture that can meet mitigation, market and sectorial targets. The fourth team discusses how to strengthen the theoretical foundation and develop tools for analyzing the determinants of adaptive capacity. Such capacity can be constrained by outdated institutions when these fail to be abreast of changing social-ecological conditions. Structures and processes (norms, values, preferences) have a role in activating adaptive capacity, exemplified by the northern Norwegian expression ?vi står han av?-we always handle hardship. The theoretical approach will shape the outcome: in post-positivistic perspectives adaptive capacity can be measured through indicators, and for interpretivists it is a relational process mobilizing ideas. The project illustrates how adaptive capacity is situated in and influenced by a complex policy-setting, (climate, agriculture, flood compensation regulations). Activation of adaptive capacity is also influenced by perceptions, interpretations and knowledge about the problem. People may not respond adequately to risks if perceived as irrelevant. Conversely people may wish to activate adaptive capacity but may meet barriers in regulations, management, and policies. The upshot is the need for cross-sectoral policy that addresses the complex linkages between climate change, viable communities and what we wish to adapt to.

Climate change is documented to have consequences for communities and ecosystems in the North. The International Polar Year brought new knowledge on how these changes shape vulnerability in socio-ecological systems. The project Critical Aspects of Adaptiv e Capacity to Climate Change in Northern Regions will build on the legacy of the IPY consortium CAVIAR, and other NORKLIMA projects. The project will focus on the adaptive capacity of communities, sectors and industries towards changes in the social-ecolo gical systems, including climate change. The main objective is to provide new insights to the critical determinants of adaptive capacity to changes in the social-ecological system in the north. It will provide new knowledge on how changes in ecosystem ser vices affect various users, and their adaptive capacity to cope with changes. Research has revealed that a lack of focused adaptation policies raises critical questions about the consequences for the adaptive capacity of natural resource management and in dustries. The project will therefore scrutinize how and to what degree policy address and implement adaptation to climate change across sectors. Communities and industries in the North will also have to adapt to climate change mitigation, and this projec t will study how climate change mitigation shapes their adaptive capacity. Climate change and gender has not been addressed to any extent in Arctic Research. This project focuses on the socio-economic interplay between gender and the effects of climate ch ange, and will contribute to understanding how gender matters in determining adaptive capacity. The project is fundamentally inter-disciplinary and utilizes scientific and local knowledge. It will advance theory development in the social-ecological system s field through combining CAVIAR and SES frameworks . The project will provide policy relevant knowledge that can be used for strengthening the adaptive capacity of Northern societies.