Søknad om støtte til IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program

The vulnerability of food and water shortage increases as the Earth is warming. Today, the two main pressures on water availability is climate change towards a more variable and in some regions drier climate and increased water consumption due to populati on growth. In order to mitigate water shortage, there is a need for a better understanding of the driving forces controlling water availability. As the climate and land surface in certain regions of Europe is drying or becoming wetter, certain feedback m echanisms may contribute to enhancing or reducing the effects on climate. For instance, soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks may act as a driving force to dry southern parts of Europe and to moisten northern parts. Understanding the partitioning of net r adiation into sensible and latent heat is important to represent these processes. Partitioning into turbulent fluxes is influenced by soil moisture, climate and land cover. High sensible heat fluxes indicate a lack of water available for evaporation. In this project, the land surface model NOAH will be run to simulate sensible and latent heat fluxes for wet and dry periods and regions in Europe. The results will be compared with precipitation and temperature trends found in my PhD study to identify if po ssible concurrent changes in heat fluxes can explain the trends. The project contributes to understanding the driving forces controlling water availability which is important for predicting future water shortage. My PhD project focuses on trends in the water balance and feedbacks between land and atmosphere under a changed climate. In the YSSP project, I will look into whether changes in soil moisture content and heat fluxes can explain the observed trends. Thus, the Young Scientist's Summer Program fi ts nicely into my PhD project.