Begge PhD-studentene avsluttet sine forskningsopphold hos våre internasjonale samarbeidspartnere, KNMI (Nederland) og University of Exeter (Storbritannia). Vurderingen av datakvalitet har gjort fremskritt, og en ny versjon av vår valideringsprogramvare Wavy (anaconda.org/conda-forge/wavyopen) har blitt tilgjengeliggjort og er allerede tatt i bruk av offshoreindustri. Utviklingen inkluderer blant annet trippel kollokasjon, hvor viktige funksjoner ble inkludert og gjort tilgjengelige. Utviklingen av statistiske modeller har også gjort fremskritt, og tre tilknyttede manuskripter som oppsummerer disse resultatene er for tiden under arbeid. Resultatene har allerede blitt presentert ved flere anledninger, inkludert på "International workshop on waves, storm surges and coastal hazards" i Santander, Spania.
Extreme sea states have tremendous impact on marine structural design and offshore operations where high assets and human lives are at stake. It is of paramount importance to map and understand the physical processes leading to these extremes and to correctly estimate their probability and magnitude. We will focus on large scale metocean conditions associated with extreme sea states. For our three regions of interest, the Central North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, such metocean conditions have not yet been assessed systematically despite their immense value for improving return level estimates. Even though the predictive skill of forecasting synoptic scale meteorological conditions on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales advanced greatly over the last decade, it has not been utilized to predict exceedance probabilities and return level estimates. Being able to answer a question like: ”What is the probability for exceeding 7 m SWH in the coming season” would make the long-term planning of offshore operations more reliable and precise and thus reduce risks and costs significantly. We plan to create a superior statistical extreme value model for our regions based on large wave hindcast datasets including the knowledge of metocean conditions connected to extreme sea states. Expanding this model to seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will yield the first seasonal extreme sea state prediction system. This task will be achieved by combining strong interdisciplinary and international expertise on meteorology, ocean surface waves, and statistical modelling of environmental hazards. Our custom-fit dissemination plan will convey the knowledge and product to where it is needed.
