Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic - Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies

The final period of the project was devoted to preparation of the project data sets, reports and cross-disciplinary publications. We published or submitted three papers combining expertise and results of the partners from Norway, US and Russia. These studies emphasize impact of the urban climate anomalies on the social and economic aspects of the Arctic cities. Our work was focused on northern cities in Scandinavia. We found that the urban climate is warmer than the background climate both in summer and winter months. Satellite data revealed that even coastal cities such as Tromsø exhibit warmer temperatures - the urban heat island of 1.5 to 2.0 degrees C. Thus, we completed our review of the urban heat islands in 100 Arctic towns using the long-term (2000-2017) satellite data products. We extended the study to the local climate of specific land use ? land cover types across bioclimatic zones. This study discovered that some vegetation ecosystems (e.g. dark needle forest) are able to maintain warmer local climates. This feature creates a positive temperature feedback when forest support warmer local climate that supports forest in the cold climate. Using reanalysis data ERA-Interim together with the satellite data on biological production and land cover type, we identified seasonal weather anomalies, which enhance or reduce ecosystem productivity. We showed that in tundra and forest-tundra, summertime temperature is the most important factor, whereas in forest ecosystems (taiga), summer precipitation is more important.

HIARC remote sensing data set contains information about the urban temperature anomalies in 100+ Arctic cities; the high resolution in situ data set (UHIARC) includes data for 6 Russian cities. The data sets are for developers and urban planners. HIARC remote sensing data set of changes in biological productivity contains vegetation indices for the whole pan-Arctic region since 2000. Greening and browning of biomes were attributed to the specific ecosystems. The data set is for ecologists and climate modelers. HIARC returned a detailed picture of the arctic environment in 1-2 degrees warmer climates. We mapped the pan-Arctic vegetation changes, attributed local climate anomalies to the concrete land use - land cover types, and looked at the ecosystem service functional in Scandinavia and Siberia. The data are for climate adaptation and smart city planning. Knowledge of urban heat island could be used to improve resilience of infrastructure to raising temperatures in cites.

The project Anthropogenic Heat Islands in the Arctic ? Windows to the Future of the Regional Climates, Ecosystems and Societies (HIARC) will investigate an interesting, arguably important but still largely overlooked phenomenon of ecosystem and societal adaptation to warmer micro-climates, which have been created by the anthropogenic heat pollution in the arctic urbanized areas over the last 30-40 years. Even on background of the amplified arctic warming, this heat pollution has created urban heat islands where temperatures are by one-two degrees higher than in the surrounding areas. It has been overlooked that the heat pollution exists long enough for local ecosystems to adapt to the warmer micro-climates. This adaptation opens windows of opportunity to resolve critical debates about the climate change impact and feedbacks between vegetation, waters, permafrost and climate. HIARC ambitions are to combine high-resolution meteorological observations, satellite, modelling data with societal data, economical output and qualitative narratives of the ongoing changes and threats coming from the cultural perspectives. HIARC should improve understanding of environmental impact of heat pollution and urbanization. This understanding will help to produce more accurate and more policy relevant projects of the arctic changes on the adaptation time scales up to 2050 and beyond. The HIARC impact is determined by its focus on the living, technological and cultural environment of 85% of the total arctic population. Up to 92% of them are migrants from southern territories, attracted by jobs. HIARC addresses the problem of broader impact of the arctic urbanization looking at: adaptation of bio-medical responses among migrants; urban dynamics,socio-cultural development and conflicts; feedbacks between environmental and climate changes over the longer historical perspective. socio-cultural development and conflicts; environmental feedbacks over the longer historical climate perspective